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Тема: Bitcoin Price Facing New ‘Death Cross’ Suggests No $10K BTC Before May

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Bitcoin Price Facing New ‘Death Cross’ Suggests No $10K BTC Before May

Bitcoin Price Facing New ‘Death Cross’ Suggests No $10K BTC Before May

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $6,670 representing a 1% gain in the last 24 hours but a gain of 14.66% off the weekly open at $5,815. Looking at performance relative to its peers, Ether (ETH) and XRP both underperformed versus Bitcoin last week against the U.S. dollar and have continued to do so.

As a result, Bitcoin dominance is up 1.5% and pushing to reclaim 68% as there has been a general flight to safety in Bitcoin, although dominance is still down some 4% for the highs of the year at around 70%.

3-day Bitcoin chart

Bitcoin is trading up against what is a fundamental decision point at $6.8K. This is previous support now acting as resistance and the top of a high volume node which is dissected by a diagonal resistance trend line, which dates back to mid-2020.

Reclaiming $6.5K has been a sign of strength by the bulls who catapulted Bitcoin higher off the 200-week moving average in the mid $5Ks. Looking at the big picture, a meaningful break out of the $6.8K resistance would see Bitcoin first attack $7,200 — the 50% retracement of the 2020 lows to highs — but above that stands formidable resistance.

“Death cross” looms

There is a so-called “death cross” taking place today overhead at $8300 where the 50-day moving average is crossing below the 200-day moving average, which is a crowded cluster of other former support levels, namely the 100-day and the 20-week moving averages. Alongside this is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $8K and yearly pivot at $8,100 and a high volume node, implying that it will be a real challenge for the bulls to break beyond this point.

The 3-day Bitcoin chart helps illustrate the persistently high volume being transacted by the bulls, albeit declining in its momentum, the volume at the 200-week moving average has resulted in the OBV printing the biggest surge to the upside in recent times and is indicative of real support around the mid $5Ks.

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4-hour Bitcoin Chart

The 4-hour Bitcoin chart shows a strong trend pressing Bitcoin up against the $6.8K resistance level with the structure arguably being in a rising wedge pattern, which is typically bearish when accompanied by decreasing volume as is apparent here. The RSI is also showing bearish divergence which adds to the bearish case.

If the bulls are unable to regain the $6,800 level, the 200-week moving average is lying below at around $5,500 on a high volume node, which was previously front run in the last attempt to break $6,800. Should the bulls find their feet again, diagonal support will be found at $6,250.

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Typically in Bitcoin’s history, we have seen a rally into the death crosses and depreciation into a golden cross. If the bulls can break the $6,800 level, there is a high probability of selling pressure around $8K due to the confluence of previously lost support now likely to act as resistance.

Bitcoin market sentiment

The Crypto fear and Greed index, which is a metric deriving the sentiment in the market from various inputs, shows unsurprisingly that the market remains in extreme fear meaning that there is likely to be more market volatility on the way.

The last time that fear was at these lows for any amount of time was in December 2020 at the lows of the 2020 bear market and interestingly also at the 200-week moving average. The 200-week moving average was ultimately a magnet for a retest although price never quite made it and was front ran, which was a good indicator the bottom was in. It is possible we are setting up for the same scenario again here.

The futures market also gives an insight into what the expectation is for the price of Bitcoin with contracts ending in June currently trading in backwardation with a discount from spot prices of around 1%. However, there is an expectation of some recovery and higher valuation for the September contract close.

Perpetual swap funding also remains negative in the market, meaning that in order to achieve a synthetic cash position on a perpetual swap exchange, market participants are effectively paying an interest rate.

Historically, there has been an inverse relationship between negative funding and propensity for the market to turn bullish so this may indicate that eventually those paying to be in a short position for longer periods while price remains flat above the 200 WMA will naturally be squeezed out.

With global uncertainty reaching all-time highs at present and with the commitment from central banks to provide “unlimited” liquidity in the form of debt, Bitcoin finds itself at ground zero in terms of its purpose for its creation.

While global assets are depreciating in real terms, Bitcoin’s inflationary supply is due to be cut in half in May and once the dust settles on the global markets, it may be that there is a flow of idle dollars into the Bitcoin market.

This macroeconomic backdrop could prove to be very beneficial to the price of Bitcoin. The key challenge is to maintain the 200-week moving average and miner’s revenue above production cost, which is presently the case.

Assuming the 200-week moving average will be retained and $8K will be the resistance expected, Bitcoin may find itself trading sideways between the $6K and $8K for some time before a decisive move. The backdrop couldn’t be a better time to talk about the halving and in a few weeks that will present itself as being an imminent event that could be the catalyst to take Bitcoin back above resistance; time will tell with 49 days remaining until Bitcoin reward halving.

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How to Calculate Plantwide Overhead Rate

You have to consider more than the cost of the goods or services your company sells when you set prices. A business has a variety of additional costs that must be allowed for when determining prices. A plantwide or single overhead rate is one method for allocating these indirect costs so you can set prices appropriately.

Components of Overhead

Overhead is the general term for costs a business pays other than the direct costs of producing a good or service.

A portion of these indirect costs, such as rent, utilities and office expenses, must be allocated to each unit of production to arrive at an accurate estimate of the total cost of the unit. When a plantwide overhead rate is used, all items produced are allocated a share of the overhead based on a single parameter.

Typically, a plantwide overhead rate assigns a cost figure based on the labor hours needed to produce one unit.

Gathering Direct and Indirect Costs

To calculate a plantwide overhead rate, you need specific information.

First, find the total of all operational costs other than the direct cost of production for the period you are measuring. Typical direct costs are raw materials and direct production labor. Collectively, the indirect costs are your overhead.

You also need the total number of direct labor hours and the direct labor hours required to produce each product the plant manufactures. Per unit labor hours can be calculated by dividing the total labor hours used to manufacture each product by the number of units manufactured.

Calculating the Plantwide Overhead Rate

To calculate the plantwide overhead rate, first divide total overhead by the number of direct labor hours used to find the overhead per labor hour. Next, multiply the overhead per labor hour by the number of labor hours used to produce each unit.

Suppose your overhead total for a month is $120,000 and the plant requires 1,500 labor hours to produce 1,000 units of Product A. The plant also produces 2,000 units of product B, using another 1,000 labor hours in the process, for an overall total of 2,500 labor hours.

Divided into the overhead of $120,000, this comes to $48 in overhead per labor hour. Product A requires 1.5 hours per unit, so the overhead rate is 1.5 times $48, or $72 per unit. For product B, two labor hours are needed per unit, so the overhead per unit equals two times $48, or $96.

An Alternative Approach Using Direct Cost

Another approach to calculating a single or plantwide overhead rate uses direct cost as a basis, rather than direct labor hours.

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To calculate this number, identify the total direct cost of production and the total overhead costs for the month. Divide the total overhead by the direct costs.

For example, if overhead totals $75,000 for a month and direct costs equal $125,000, you have an overhead rate of 0.6 or 60 cents of overhead for every dollar of direct costs. Multiply the direct cost of one unit by 0.6 to find the amount of overhead you should allocate per unit. In this example, if the direct cost of one unit of a product is $80, multiplying $80 by 0.6 gives an overhead cost allocation of $48.

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AccountingTools

Factory overhead is the costs incurred during the manufacturing process, not including the costs of direct labor and direct materials. Factory overhead is normally aggregated into cost pools and allocated to units produced during the period. It is charged to expense when the produced units are later sold as finished goods or written off. The allocation of factory overhead to units produced is avoided under the direct costing methodology, but is mandated under absorption costing. The allocation of factory overhead is required when producing financial statements under the dictates of the major accounting frameworks. Examples of factory overhead costs are:

Quality assurance salaries

Materials management salaries

Equipment setup costs

Factory small tools charged to expense

Insurance on production facilities and equipment

Property taxes on production facilities

The range of possible factory overhead costs can be quite extensive, depending upon the size and complexity of a factory operation and the level of detail at which costs are recorded.

After factory overhead is allocated to inventory, the amount actually allocated will vary from the standard amount that had been budgeted to be allocated. This difference is caused by either a spending variance or an efficiency variance. The spending variance occurs because the actual amount of factory overhead expenditure incurred in the period was different from the standard amount that had been budgeted at some point in the past. The efficiency variance occurs because the the amount of units to which the factory overhead was allocated varied from the standard amount of production that had been expected when the allocation rate was set up.

The use of factory overhead is mandated by accounting standards, but does not bring real value to the understanding of overhead costs, so a best practice is to minimize the complexity of the factory overhead allocation methodology. Ideally, there should be a small number of highly aggregated factory overhead accounts that are pooled into a single cost pool, and then allocated using a simple methodology. Also, the amount of factory overhead analysis and recordation work can be mitigated by charging all immaterial factory costs to expense as incurred.

Similar Terms

Factory overhead is also known as manufacturing overhead or manufacturing burden.

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